In a league driven by parity, you need about a month to sort out the haves from the have-nots in a given NFL season.
But with defending division champions Chicago, Philadelphia and San Diego all at 1-3 and New Orleans floundering at 0-3, I admit I'm still trying to get a handle on the have-nots in 2007.
But I know the haves – the AFC South. Almost overnight it's become the best division in football.
Indianapolis is the defending Super Bowl champion and Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all bearing the fruits of recent youth movements. The Colts are 4-0, the Jaguars and Titans both 2-1 and the Texans 2-2.
The Colts have the best quarterback in the NFL in Peyton Manning and the Titans the best young quarterback in Vince Young. The AFC South currently has three defenses in the top 11 – No. 4 Jacksonville, No. 9 Tennessee and No. 11 Indianapolis – and the Texans aren't far behind at No. 14.
![The AFC South features Tennessee's Vince Young, the NFL's top young quarterback.]()
AP
The AFC South features Tennessee's Vince Young, the NFL's top young quarterback.
On paper, the AFC South is stout. But on the field is where the South has separated itself from the rest. Through the first month of the season, the South has posted a league-best 10-4 record. This division is 4-1 versus the NFC, 6-1 on the road and 7-1 outside the division.
Don't be surprised if both AFC wild cards come out of the South this season. The NFL went to a two wild-card format in 1978 and seven times a division produced three playoff teams in the 1980s. The NFL went to three wild cards in 1990 and a single division produced three playoff teams 14 times in that format.
But since 2002 when the NFL realigned and created four division with only two wild cards, a single division has produced three wild cards only once – the NFC East in 2006 when the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants all advanced.
Don't be surprised if the AFC South claims three playoff spots in 2007. This division is loaded. Not only does the South have four of the best teams in the AFC, it has four of the better teams in the NFL.
Here's a list of the divisions that have produced three or more playoff teams in a season:
| Year | Division | Teams | | 2006 | NFC East | 3 – Philadelphia, Dallas, NY Giants | | 2001 | AFC East | 3 – New England, Miami, NY Jets | | 2001 | NFC Central | 3 – Chicago, Green Bay, Tampa Bay | | 1999 | AFC East | 3 – Indianapolis, Buffalo, Miami | | 1999 | NFC Central | 3 – Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Detroit | | 1998 | AFC East | 4 – NY Jets, Miami, Buffalo, New England | | 1997 | NFC Central | 4 – Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Minnesota | | 1996 | AFC East | 3 – New England, Buffalo, Indianapolis | | 1995 | AFC East | 3 – Buffalo, Indianapolis, Miami | | 1994 | NFC Central | 4 – Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago | | 1993 | AFC West | 3 – Kansas City, LA Raiders, Denver | | 1993 | NFC Central | 3 – Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay | | 1992 | NFC East | 3 – Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington | | 1991 | AFC West | 3 – Denver, Kansas City, LA Raiders | | 1990 | NFC East | 3 – NY Giants, Philadelphia, Washington | | 1989 | AFC Central | 3 – Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh | | 1988 | AFC Central | 3 – Cleveland, Cincinnati, Houston | | 1985 | AFC East | 3 – Miami, NY Jets, New England | | 1984 | AFC West | 3 – Denver, Seattle LA Raiders | | 1983 | AFC West | 3 – LA Raiders, Seattle, Denver | | 1981 | AFC East | 3 – Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo | | 1981 | NFC East | 3 – Dallas, Philadelphia, NY Giants | | Teams in bold won the Super Bowl. | |
Now, here's my impression of the NFL as we make the first scheduling turn into October:
If the SuperBowl were played tomorrow
Let's switch it up this week and go with the Cowboys and Colts. The defending Super Bowl champions would have a definite advantage in big-game experience over the Cowboys. The Colts have won seven playoff games since the Cowboys last won in the postseason in 1996. Even the Arizona Cardinals have won a playoff game more recently than the Cowboys.
The Darren McFadden Derby
The winless St. Louis Rams are 29th in the NFL in offense, 24th in defense and currently without five starters because of injury. The Rams are 0-4 and in a funk. But there's a problem looming down the road. The Rams already have long-term financial commitments in Pro Bowl quarterback Marc Bulger and running back Steven Jackson. That likely would knock Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm and Arkansas running back Darren McFadden out of consideration if St. Louis winds up with that first overall pick in the 2008 draft. Then that choice would seemingly go to the highest bidder.
Commish for a day
Just a pet peeve of mine: I'd eliminate the option of kicking the extra point. Make teams run or throw for the extra point after touchdowns. If there's anything routine in football, it's the conversion kick. League-wide, NFL teams converted 564 of 571 extra-point kicks in 2006. Kicking is boring. The less of it in NFL games, the better. There'd be more twists and turns strategically if every conversion is by land or air.
Goose 101
Wonder why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are alone atop the NFC South? They aren't beating themselves. Quarterback Jeff Garcia has not thrown an interception in 90 passes this season and the Bucs lost only four fumbles in September. Garcia has a personal streak of 110 consecutive passes without an interception dating to last December. If you don't beat yourself, you can win games in the NFL. Here's a look at the league's top six teams in the giveaway/takeaway ratio:
| Team | Ratio | W-L | | Indianapolis | Plus-7 | 4-0 | | Dallas | Plus-7 | 4-0 | | Seattle | Plus-5 | 3-1 | | Tampa Bay | Plus-4 | 3-1 | | Green Bay | Plus-3 | 4-0 | | Pittsburgh | Plus-3 | 3-1 | |
Trivia question
Who was the last player to intercept Garcia? Answer below.
Looking back at my weekend in Indianapolis
The Colts will have a new home in 2008, moving across the street from the RCA Dome into Lucas Oil Stadium. The shell of the stadium is about two-thirds built. There will be a retractable roof and a glass wall facing the downtown skyline. The new stadium looks like Reliant Stadium in Houston but has an exterior with a fieldhouse feel that the NBA Pacers have at their home a couple of blocks away at Conseco.
Looking ahead at my weekend in Pittsburgh
I've got tickets in Dallas on Friday night for the Stars' NHL home opener against the Boston Bruins. I'm tempted to go to the Ducks-Penguins game on Saturday night when I'm in Pittsburgh as well. It'd be a nice warmup for Seahawks-Steelers on Sunday. I always thought it was neat that all three of Pittsburgh's pro teams have the same color scheme – black and gold.
Rising stock
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson ran a 4.35 for NFL talent evaluators last winter. That's why he went to Detroit on the second overall pick of the 2007 draft. Wide receiver Ted Ginn ran a 4.38. That's why he went to the Miami Dolphins on the ninth overall pick. Bowe ran a 4.51, which is why he slid all the way to the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 23. Measurables get a player drafted in April – but ability gets him on the field in September. Despite a lack of perceived speed, Bowe has emerged as the best wideout in a deep receiver class. He has scored a touchdown in each of his first three NFL starts for the Chiefs, and propelled KC to a 30-16 upset of San Diego last weekend with an eight-catch, 164-yard performance that included a 51-yard touchdown. He broke the club record for receiving yards by a rookie set 47 years ago by Johnny Robinson in the inaugural season of the franchise (130 yards vs. Buffalo). The 164 yards were also the most by a KC receiver in a game since 1998 when Derrick Alexander slapped 178 yards on San Diego.
Falling stock
Cedric Benson, HB, Chicago . The Bears felt they were stifling 2005 first-round draft pick Cedric Benson by having him split the carries at halfback with Thomas Jones over the last two seasons. Expecting Benson to blossom in 2007, the Bears traded away Jones in the off-season. But Benson's coming-out party has not materialized. He's struggled along with the rest of his 1-3 teammates. He did rush for 101 yards in Chicago's only victory over Kansas City in Week 2. But he has been held to 50 yards or less with a fumble in each of the three losses. Patience is wearing thin. Last week, the Bears started working in third-round draft pick Garrett Wolfe, giving him his first carries of the season.
Around the Ranch
The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in scoring, second in offense and fifth in both passing and rushing. But the most impressive offensive statistic to me is the time of possession. With Tony Romo, the Cowboys will always be considered a passing team – yet Dallas leads the NFC in time of possession at 32 minutes, 47 seconds per game. That's almost 1:45 longer than the Cowboys held onto the ball in games last season. If you have the ball, the other team doesn't – and you can't score without the ball. Four AFC teams have held onto the ball longer than the Cowboys, though: New England (34:25), Baltimore (33:54), Pittsburgh (33:49) and Tennessee (33:25).
Factoid
Atlanta's Joey Harrington threw two touchdown passes to wide receiver Michael Jenkins last weekend. He gets the ball to his wide receivers, something his predecessor, Mike Vick, failed to do. Jenkins became the first Atlanta wide receiver to catch two TD passes in a game since Halloween of 2004 when Peerless Price caught a pair from Vick against Denver. That was 44 games ago. Vick threw only eight TD passes to his wideouts last season. Harrington has thrown three to his wides in the last two weeks.
From the wallet
If I'm buying an NFL ticket this week, here's how I spend my money:
Luxury box, Tampa Bay at Indianapolis . The Buccaneers fired Tony Dungy after the 2001 season despite three consecutive playoff appearances because the Glazer family didn't believe he could take them to the next plateau. The Colts quickly snapped up Dungy and he has since coached them to five consecutive seasons of 10-plus wins. That translates into five consecutive playoff seasons, two AFC title game appearances and a Super Bowl championship in 2006. In his one previous game against the Bucs – a Monday nighter in Tampa in 2003 – the Colts became the only team in NFL history to rally from a 21-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation for a 38-35 victory. Dungy gets another shot against his old team Sunday. The matchup has added spice in that both teams lead their divisions. The Colts sit atop the AFC South at 4-0, the Bucs atop the NFC South at 3-1.
Club seat, Seattle at Pittsburgh . This is the only other game this weekend that pits two division leaders. The Steelers lead the AFC North at 3-1 and the Seahawks the NFC West also at 3-1. This matchup has added spice in that it's a rematch of the 2006 Super Bowl won by the Steelers, 21-10.
Downstairs on the 50, Jacksonville at Kansas City. Neither the Jaguars and Chiefs lead divisions, but both bring two-game winning streaks into Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. The Jaguars are 2-1 and coming off their bye. The Chiefs are 2-2 and coming off a road upset against San Diego. Both teams are going to run the ball and play defense. The Chiefs enter the game with the NFL's third-ranked defense and the Jaguars are No. 4. The Chiefs will batter the Jacksonville front with Larry Johnson, and the Jaguars will attack the Kansas City front with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.
The game I've got circled on my calendar
Green Bay at Dallas, Nov. 29. The last remaining unbeatens in the NFC are the Packers and Cowboys, both at 4-0. Any chance they could both still be unbeaten two months from now? The Packers have three toughies on the road before then at Denver, Kansas City and Detroit. The Cowboys play the Patriots at home before then plus Philadelphia and the New York Giants on the road.
Yellow flags
The last guy the Cowboys want to see Monday night in Buffalo is referee Walt Anderson. In every game Anderson and his crew officiated in September, the home team won. The NFL has 17 officiating crews, and the Anderson crew was the only one that went 4-0 with home teams last month. The Cowboys will not be seeing Anderson on Monday, though. He officiated the Dallas-St. Louis game last weekend. The NFL does not assign officials to the same team on back-to-back weekends.
Book review
Greatest Team Ever, by Norm Hitzges and Ron St. Angelo. Hitzges, who has been a sports talk show host forever in Dallas, makes the case in this coffee table book that the 1991-95 Cowboys were the greatest dynasty ever. He's not alone in that thought.
In the book's foreward, Pat Summerall backs up Hitzges. Summerall either played against or provided TV commentary for all the game's great dynasties: the 1950s Browns, 1960s Packers, 1970s Steelers, 1980s 49ers and 2000s Patriots. "The chore of labeling any one of these incredible clubs as 'the best' approaches impossibility," Summerall writes. "But of those dynasties over the last 50 years, I have to go with the Dallas Cowboys as the best of them all. They had it all … and then some."
![Troy Aikman and coach Jimmy Johnson celebrated the Cowboys' victory over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVIII.]()
AP
Troy Aikman and coach Jimmy Johnson celebrated the Cowboys' victory over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVIII.
Hitzges supplies a series of vignettes of the dynasty's critical moments from 1991 through 1995, and the photography of St. Angelo is on display throughout the book in vibrant color. St. Angelo was the team photographer for decades and had inside access, which he obviously put to good use over the years. The photos alone make the book a great keepsake for any football fan.
But Hitzges' argument of "greatest ever" makes the book attractive for the Cowboys fan. He bases his stand on the number of victories, playoff victories and Pro Bowls. Across the board, the Cowboys were tops of all the dynasties.
Hitzges also points out that if NFL free agency had not come along in 1993 and the Cowboys could have kept all their players like the previous dynasties, America's Team might have pushed their greatness out even further. But losing a Ken Norton, Russell Maryland, Mark Stepnoski, Dixon Edwards, Tony Casillas and others in free agency chipped away at the quality and depth of the roster.
It's a quick read. I read it on the plane last Saturday on the way to Indianapolis. You'll appreciate the candor of such players as Troy Aikman, Daryl Johnston, Charles Haley, Nate Newton, Stepnoski and James Washington.
I covered the Cowboys from 1990-91 when Jimmy Johnson was building them into a great team. I've long believed the 1992 Cowboys to be the greatest Super Bowl champion ever. They were young, deep, talented, fast and played the game with a swagger.
We all wonder how long the Cowboys could have kept their dynasty afloat if: a) Johnson and Jerry Jones could have gotten along; and b) free agency not arrived on the NFL landscape. As far as dynasties, though, I still favor the Lombardi Packers, who won five NFL titles in seven years with 10 Hall of Famers.
Draft Watch: wide receivers
Wide receiver Early Doucet caught 59 passes and scored 10 touchdowns for LSU in 2006. That doesn't strike me as anything special – until you consider his circumstances. Doucet was sharing the workload on the flank with two 2007 first-round draft picks, Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City) and Craig Davis (San Diego). In the final college game for Bowe and Davis – the 2007 Sugar Bowl – it was Doucet who lit up Notre Dame with eight catches and 115 yards. His name shows up on the draft board in 2008 and he could be the third first-round wideout produced by the Tigers in two years.
Here's a list of the top 10 senior wide receiver NFL draft prospects heading into the fall:
| Player | School | Ht. | Wt. | | Limas Sweed | Texas | 6-4½ | 219 | | Adarius Bowman | Oklahoma State | 6-3 | 220 | | Early Doucet | LSU | 6-0 | 211 | | Dorien Bryant | Purdue | 5-10 | 172 | | Donnie Avery | Houston | 5-11 | 183 | | Marcus Monk | Arkansas | 6-5 | 217 | | Andre Caldwell | Florida | 6-0 | 203 | | D.J. Hall | Alabama | 6-2 | 189 | | Harry Douglas | Louisville | 5-11 | 169 | | Paul Hubbard | Wisconsin | 6-3 | 217 | |
The betting line
The NFL started incorporating byes into the schedule last weekend, so there were only 14 games on the card for Week 4. Underdogs won eight of them outright. Kansas City became the first double-digit underdog this season to win outright – and also the first double-digit underdog to win on the road. The Chiefs were 11½-point underdogs at San Diego but smoked the Chargers, 30-16. Oakland was the only other underdog to win on the road last weekend, toppling winless Miami.
Trivia answer
Cowboys cornerback Anthony Henry intercepted Garcia's final pass of the first quarter on Christmas Day 2006.
Two-minute drill
■ We're only a month into the season and already six teams are down to their second option at quarterback: Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota and Oakland. Baltimore and the New York Jets also started backups in games in September. A ninth team is likely to make a switch this week because of a separated shoulder suffered by Alex Smith. San Francisco will go with Trent Dilfer against the team he led to a Super Bowl championship in 2000, the Baltimore Ravens.
■ The NFL schedule-maker certainly did the Kansas City Chiefs no favors. The league started the Chiefs off with three of their first four games on the road. Now Kansas City's next two games – Jacksonville and Cincinnati – are against teams coming off byes.
■ What's impressive about the 4-0 start by the Colts is that all four victories came against teams that sat atop their divisions at game time. New Orleans was 0-0, Tennessee 1-0, Houston 2-0 and Denver 2-1. The Colts play a fifth consecutive first-place team Sunday against 3-1 Tampa Bay.
■ The Carolina Panthers don't mind playing on the road. These days they welcome it. The Panthers are 2-2 with two losses at home and two victories on the road.
■ The Eagles gained 190 yards the other night against the New York Giants. But they were penalized 15 times for 132 yards and sacked 12 times for 62 yards. That left them 4 yards in the hole. You're not going to win many games with yardage on the negative side of the ledger.
Final thought
The Chargers are reeling at 1-3. They've lost their identity both on offense and defense. If I were coach Norv Turner, I'd revert to what made the Chargers a great team in 2006. I'd give the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson again and again and again this weekend in Denver.
He's the best player in the NFL. The more he touches the ball, the better player he becomes – and the better team the Chargers become. He has run the ball 17, 18, 20 and 22 times in San Diego's first four games this season. I'd make sure he gets 30 handoffs and maybe another five passes Sunday. For the Chargers to get back on track, Tomlinson needs to get back on track.
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